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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-08-09T21:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-09T21:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32663/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is an M4.5 flare peaking at 2024-08-09T21:23Z from AR 3774 (approx. S05W40). Eruption with rising/opening field lines and dimming are best seen in SDO AIA 193, GOES 284, and STEREO A EUV 195. No clear CME arrival signatures in the solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-12T14:50Z (-4.6h, +7.42h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 66.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/08/09 21:45Z
Plane of Sky 1: 05:30Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 11:20Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction
POS Difference: 5:50
POS Midpoint: 08:25Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:40

Numeric View/Impact Type: 3
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.1
Travel Time: ~6.1 * 10:40 = 65:05

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-12T14:50Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/08/10 06:50Z

Lead Time: 49.78 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-08-10T13:03Z

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